A surprise win -

In comment to my last post where I complained about my lack of training - perhaps it was the rest that carried me to victory on Saturday in the Paris Mountain Trail Run(?) Those who monitor and record with precision their training - I applaud you.

Since I stopped formally running competitively, winning has become this infrequent and enjoyed surprise. Moreover, more recently, I have had a difficult time predicting how I will perform at a race.

My training does not consist of speed work or any other formal exercises. I would rather run up a steep mountain - over and over - then be on a track (I applaud those who routinely do track workouts). I do record my miles, but these are guesses because most of my training is done in the national forest. I have seemed to have adopted the minimalist approach of: shoes, a watch, a dog and some trails (although I am trying to follow Hal Higdon's guide to keep me on track for the marathon). But, upon reflection, this lack of formality or structure to my training is frustrating. It would be enjoyable to have a more accurate idea of how I am going to perform in race, or how fast to run each mile. Since I have not trained with a coach for a long time, many of these skills have seemed to disappeared.

Any thoughts from those who have been able to predict their performance (albeit not perfectly) with some consistency?